We are launching a new site called Investor Day Candy to cover what are far more frequent investor-focused events that have some of the look and feel of an IPO or preparation for a direct listing/spinoff. See the link above for more. (A paid IPO Candy subscription is good for free access there and a separate email will go out to those members today with instructions.). This week we will be sending out some fresh "takes" and an updated "radar" on what is ahead. We'd love to hear feedback, comments and suggestions.
Anthropic $ANT still plans to begin marketing its IPO and hopes to get it done before the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. That means they should begin the roadshow this week.
Plans remain to raise at least $80 billion with "price talk" of $1.5 trillion, but ultimately investors will set the valuation.
This is probably the most studied S-1 in history and may be the most read legal document ever unless you count the Bible or the Qur'an.
FWIW most casual reactions have been glowing since the last year of financial results are stunningly good. It's all apparent and not with rehashing here. However, I can't help but consider valuation and shareholder returns. I'm not the only one.
If you're into valuation you already know the GOAT Aswath Damodaran and he has take oodles of time to go through the initial filing and the amended version to build rigorous models with different assumptions. These are excellent and are the best resource. You should read the two articles in full but the gist of his analysis supports a valuation around the current price talk. His latest number is $1.45T.
These posts are pretty exhaustive and include links to the models should you be ambitious enough to want to test your own assumptions:
Updated post factoring in additional numbers from the S-1/A.
First post covering the initial S-1 filing.
There will be intensive debate during the roadshow, not just about $ANT but the entire "AI Trade" for investors. It doesn't help that Jensen had to stray from his duties at $NVDA given that he tends to serve as the "honest backstop" to a lot of AI funding deals.
