Investors finally have a chance to invest in another "real" drone company besides AeroVironment $AVAV and Kratos $KTOS. Most if not all of the "retail" plays are speculations and largely outside of mainstream demand - these include $UMAC, $ONDS, $RCAT, $PDYN, $MOB and others.
Aevex $AVEX is planning to price a 16m share offering this week with a range of $18 to $22. The company was founded in 2007 but was acquired and turned into the present form by Madison Dearborn. (That means there are some capital structure issues that should be taken into account, see below.)
The Q1 2026 inflection is dramatic. Q1 2026 revenue of $200–208M up 4x YoY. Adjusted EBITDA of $33.5–36.4M vs. $(13.4M) prior year. At that annualized run rate, the forward valuation multiples look very reasonable (~2.6x fwd revenue, ~15x fwd EBITDA).
In terms of market position provides a combination of mission-focused hardware + autonomy with a combat-proven delivery track record (6,200+ systems deployed so far.)
The primary growth drivers are in scaling autonomous warfare:
- Phoenix Ghost family (Dagger, Dominator, Disruptor, Atlas) — the Pentagon's primary kamikaze drone for Ukraine, notable for its ability to fire warheads straight down while flying overhead (no traditional terminal dive required)
- EUCOM AOR Deep Strike — 4,800-unit follow-on, sole-source; this is the Q1 2026 revenue engine, with X-Bow Systems' April 2026 rocket-motor supply contract providing independent confirmation of the ramp
- ForgeX — a scale capability: a deployable, containerized additive manufacturing system that can produce drones at the tactical edge within hours. Another fabrication datapoint relevant to Velo3D $VELO.
Demand for the deal should be strong with some follow through in the after-market. The rest of this note will go further into the business, key acquisitions, market size, competition, valuation and finally the negatives regarding the PE ownership and ongoing calls on what would normally be free cash flow.
