Stolen Candy: Eventbrite

During our work on the Stubhub $STUB IPO, our interest in Eventbrite $EB was piqued. We mentioned that investors who like microcap names might be much more interested in this little piece of broken candy.

Before we could publish our Broken Candy thesis on Eventbrite as a top 2026 recovery story, an acquisition was announced at $4.50/share in cash from Bending Spoons. They are smart to see the bargain here, but the Board of Eventbrite hasn't done its job.

Even a cursory analysis of revenue multiples and industry benchmarks yields a fair value range of $6.63 - $9.28/share.

We were expecting real progress on expense reductions and increases in operating margins in 2026. In an acquisition scenario, these changes can be made rapidly. That would translate into over $50M in annual earnings.

Looking at more strategic buyers, a sale price of over $10/share would still be significantly accretive to them. They would be able to exploit the data and user base more effectively as well.

Sure, it feels like a bluebird or a gift horse, but after doing the work, we know the company is worth more. Does the Board?

Some notes on metrics, multiples and better buyers follow.

Revenue Multiples

Eventbrite is being acquired at 1.7x TTM revenue ($294.8 million), a substantial discount to recent comparable transactions:

1. Vimeo: Acquired by Bending Spoons at 3.3x revenue ($415M revenue, $1.38B price)
2. Vivid Seats: Currently valued at 5.4x revenue ($186M revenue, $1B enterprise value) in a potential sale
3. Industry Benchmarks: SaaS marketplace platforms typically trade at 3-5x revenue in healthy M&A markets

Applying a conservative 2.5-3.5x revenue multiple yields a $737 million - $1 billion valuation ($6.63-$9.28/share), representing 47-106% upside from the current offer.

Operational Leverage

The Eventbrite business can have very high margins under new ownership and would have made steady progress there even if independent.

1. Unit economics are strong with high gross margins - 67.9% in Q3 2025
2. SG&A Bloat: Selling, general & administrative expenses consumed $49.4M in Q3 2025 against $71.7M revenue (69% of revenue)
3. EBITDA Margin: Currently at 12.9% but could reach 30-40% with operational discipline

Bending Spoons' post-acquisition playbook (staff reductions, feature rationalization, operational centralization) could extract $50-75M in annual cost savings, making the $500M price tag highly accretive.

Strategic Value

Eventbrite possesses durable competitive moats that transcend current financial performance. These are worth much more to a more strategic buyer.

1. Network Effects: 4.7 million events and 83 million paid tickets across 180 countries in 2024
2. Data Moat: 20 years of creator-attendee matching data, pricing analytics, and behavioral insights
3. Brand Recognition: Leading consumer brand in the experience economy with 90% aided awareness among event creators
4. Platform Stickiness: High switching costs for event organizers with established audiences and historical data

Better Buyers

There's a longer list, but here are the ones that make the most sense: Airbnb $ABNB, Booking $BKNG, Expedia $EXPE, TripAdvisor $TRIP, and maybe a Block/Square $SQ. Even another vertical financial buyer like Thoma Bravo would be willing to pay more. Several companies outside the US want a foothold here, which this would provide as well.

Airbnb $ABNB:

1. Rationale: Eventbrite would complete Airbnb's "Experiences" ecosystem, providing self-service event creation for the 4 million+ Airbnb hosts
2. Value: Cross-selling to Airbnb's 150M+ active users, integrated booking flow, shared payment infrastructure
3. Likely Valuation: Could justify 3.5-4.5x revenue ($1.03B-$1.33B) given strategic importance and user base leverage

Booking Holdings $BKNG (and other travel players):

1. Rationale: Expand from travel bookings into local experiences and events
2. Value: 600M+ annual website visitors, AI-driven personalization, complementary inventory
3. Likely Valuation: 2.5-3.0x revenue ($737M-$884M)

Block/Square (SQ):

1. Rationale: Integrate Eventbrite into Square's merchant ecosystem, offering event ticketing as a value-added service to over 4 million Square sellers
2. Value: Combined payment processing, CRM integration, omnichannel commerce for event-based businesses
3. Likely Valuation: 2.8-3.5x revenue ($825M-$1.03B) considering payment monetization potential

Thoma Bravo / Vista Equity / Silver Lake

1. Rationale: PE firms specializing in SaaS turnarounds have more proven operational playbooks
2. Value: Margin expansion through G&A rationalization, pricing optimization, and international rollup strategy
3. Likely Valuation: 2.5-3.2x revenue ($737M-$943M) with earn-out structures tied to performance

Conclusion

The Bending Spoons offer represents an opportunistic "bottom-fishing" bid that captures Eventbrite at its nadir. The company's intrinsic value, driven by network effects in the marketplace, operational leverage potential, and strategic importance in the growing experience economy, substantially exceeds the current $500M price tag.

A competitive auction process would likely yield $750M-$1B (55-100% premium to current offer), with Airbnb, Block, and Shopify representing the most logical and financially capable strategic buyers who could extract maximum synergy value.

The board's unanimous approval suggests limited strategic review. Shareholders should demand a go-shop period to test market interest, particularly given the depressed valuation metrics relative to both public comparables and recent M&A precedents.

Reminder: This is not investment advice. We had a long position on Eventbrite based on our Stubhub analysis. We continue to hold some shares that we plan to sell in 2026 for tax purposes. We have no extraordinary experience, knowledge, or insights about any of these companies or the industry they operate in. See the full list of disclaimers, terms, and conditions on our website.