Candygram 8.18.2025

The August IPO results left us with a number of very hot deals that have ignited some IPO fever as we plan for September. After months of IPO purgatory there are hundreds of previously "trapped unicorns" that see an opportunity to get liquidity.

On the IPO portfolio front I did take a small position in $MIAX which started trading at a reasonable price in the after-market. Other companies mentioned here include Bullish $BLSH and HeartFlow $HTFL. We will be revisiting all three for potential fuller treatment in September.

The last two weeks of August are generally quiet in terms of new offerings but we may have a few pending de-SPAC and spinoff deals that will trade before Labor Day.

Crypto Crazy

There were so many crypto treasury deals announced that even people that follow them as a service just gave up - last week during a podcast one said that they have "given up" tracking everyone. It was easy we just had Strategy $MSTR and some ETFs but now there are dozens for $BTC and a blooming number of others focused on $ETH and $SOL. Last week we even saw a $1.5B made up deal by Eric and Don Jr. "funding" a company called ALT5 $ALTS with a coin of their 0wn and hoping to launch a kind of "international crypto treasury" platform. What could go wrong?

This follows on the heels of the spectacular success of Circle $CRCL which just completed a secondary offering. There are some valid use cases for stablecoins but thus far most of the action has been based more on faith than ROI. Still any new power tool can be picked up and the current Trump administration and Scott Bessent no doubt appreciate the role they can play in creating a much-needed new forced buyer for longer-term Treasury securities aka YCC. It fuels our stance on liquidity: A 3.5T Unicorn Bailout.

Bullish $BLSH Priced: $37/share | Debut Pop: +88% | Valuation: ~$11B

This Peter Thiel-backed crypto exchange crushed it on debut. Bullish owns both an information and conference platform called CoinDesk and runs a digital asset exchange. The $1.1B raise was upsized 30% from the original filing. Association with BlackRock and ARK helped add some institutional legitimacy to this one.

We're adding this one to the "real" crypto group joining other names like Circle $CRCL and Coinbase $COIN. As far as holdings go it's easier to simply hold $BTC and $ETH directly or via ETF than the companies right now.

Healthcare AI

We know this is going to be a major theme for the next few years. As someone who is going to go by way of some kind of cardio event I'm paying attention to HeartFlow $HTFL which priced above the range and has doubled from the original proposed price range to $31.

HeartFlow uses artificial intelligence for cardiovascular diagnostics - real technology solving real problems for real doctors. Over 3,000 clinical papers validate their approach, which is refreshing after years of "AI-washing" from other IPOs.

Their FDA-cleared diagnostic imaging that helps cardiologists make better decisions. Additional products will take this further and also aid in planning cardiac surgery to get better outcomes.

HeartFlow is close to a $3B valuation on just 136M in sales so we're not feeling in a rush to buy it. Growth and gross margins are good though so this one may yet make it into our portfolio.

Options are the tail wagging the dog.

Equity capital markets have been taken over by options. What was an obscure backwater when I got into the business 40 years ago is now the first thing many "investors" try out. Thanks to platforms like Robinhood $HOOD a first trade might be a call option on a retail favorite stock like Apple or Tesla.

It's not just retail - institutions are using options and derivatives heavily and any active investor has to respect options volumes, dealer inventory, gamma exposure, vol control funds and things that equity investors never had to worry about before.

Entering into this game is Miami International Holdings $MIAX which targets options execution and is planning to open a new outcry exchange in Miami!

The deal priced above the range at $27 and is trading around $32. I am long this one given how significant the market shifts have been. This is also a the type of business that has increasing margins to scale which is like a magic elixir. The current market cap is ~$3B.

MIAX operates multiple options and futures exchanges - basically serving the every increasing desire for rapid returns and options in financial markets. Retail trading volumes are robust and institutional activity is surging, exchange operators are well positioned.

The big risk is competition and margin erosion. But this is an old one and kept us away from companies like Coinbase when they came public. Growth means that these companies can compete but still grow profitably.

The Broader Picture

This isn't a 2021 redux. The companies succeeding now have fundamentals that justify public listings - albeit at later stages in their development. Investors can expect this mature IPO market continue in the back half of this year.

The fall pipeline looks promising, especially in AI and fintech.

We still lament the missing market for small IPO deals that we enjoyed in the 1990's. It's possible we have a solution (with partners) that would create it again. We'll put it out there in Q4 and see if 2026 might be the year this part of the market returns.